Baseball fans have been treated to entertaining free agencies in recent years. There was Carlos Correa’s never-ending saga that took him from San Francisco to Queens, and then all the way back to Minnesota. There was Aaron “Arson” Judge’s fascinating journey from the same offseason, full of exorbitant dollar amounts and smack talk from the Yankees on how much he’s worth, before he ultimately remained in the Bronx. There was my personal favorite from this winter, Shark Tank’s Robert Herjavec being connected to Shohei Ohtani through a flight tracker gone wrong.
If those fascinating storylines are any indication, next year’s MLB free-agent class should only offer more surprises. And who knows, maybe all the best players will even be signed before spring training. Let’s dive in for an early look at the top 10 hitters expected to reach free agency in 2024-25.
To make it simple, we’ve excluded all options and opt-outs, like Rhys Hoskins’ opt-out after this season with the Brewers, Anthony Rizzo’s club option with the Yankees, and Ha-Seong Kim’s mutual option with the Padres. The players below are ranked in order of their expected annual salary.
1. Juan Soto, OF, New York Yankees
Age entering free agency: 26
2024 ZiPS projections: .275/.424/.517, 33 HRs, 102 RBIs, 5.9 fWAR
Soto handily headlines the 2024-25 free-agent class, with industry predictions for his salary already rising past the $500 million benchmark. Half a billion dollars will always be significant, even in the wake of Ohtani’s unheard-of $700 million contract tangled in equally unimaginable deferments. Soto will be just 26 years old when he hits free agency and, as of now, he’s on the expressway to the Hall of Fame. Might he sign a long-term deal with the team for which he ends up retiring? Might we see a contract akin to Mike Trout’s 12 years with the Angels? That’s all on the table as Soto plays his walk year in pinstripes. The Yankees will get the first and best shot at signing him long term, while the four-time Silver Slugger helps them potentially get back to the postseason in 2024. Ultimately, the team holding the biggest checkbook could have the best chance at signing Soto, one of the game’s purest hitters.
2. Pete Alonso, 1B, New York Mets
Age entering free agency: 30
2024 ZiPS projections: .242/.336/.475, 34 HRs, 105 RBIs, 2.5 fWAR
Could the Polar Bear really be on the verge of leaving Queens? It’s unthinkable for Mets fans, who finally have a deep-pocketed owner passionate about winning and one of the game’s top executives leading the organization. Steve Cohen, David Stearns and Alonso himself all want to reach an agreement to keep the first baseman in a Mets uniform long term. These aren’t the Wilpon-led Mets by any measure, so there’s little reason Alonso shouldn’t get what he wants all while the club finally has the resources to achieve a worthwhile deal. It’s possible the two sides are too far apart right now, and combined with Scott Boras’ representation, it’s likely Alonso will dodge a contract extension vis-à-vis Judge or Brandon Nimmo and test the market in free agency. Unfortunately for Alonso, first basemen have seen their salaries drop compared to other positions, so it’s unlikely he’ll earn what he’s been worth: the slugger leads the big leagues in home runs (192) since his 2019 debut.
3. Alex Bregman, 3B, Houston Astros
Age entering free agency: 31
2024 ZiPS projections: .262/.364/.439, 20 HRs, 82 RBIs, 4.1 fWAR
Bregman is another Boras client, so his asking price is expected to be pretty steep. The third baseman’s free agency will come at an interesting junction. The Astros most recently signed José Altuve to an extension expected to take the face of the franchise to his retirement. Houston will see Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez hit free agency the year after Bregman. The club has sported one of the best lineups in baseball since 2017 and Bregman, while showing some signs of decline since his MVP-caliber 2019 season, has been a stellar and consistent bat in the heart of Houston’s lineup for the entirety of its championship run. Astros owner Jim Crane would likely have to offer more than he’s accustomed to in order to keep his title window open. Keeping Bregman might require giving him more than the five-year, $100 million deal he signed five years ago, even though his peak seasons could be behind him.
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4. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals
Age entering free agency: 37
2024 ZiPS projections: .256/.343/.423, 18 HRs, 70 RBIs, 1.7 fWAR
The market for Goldschmidt should be intriguing given his age and sustained All-Star production as a right-handed first baseman. He is, after all, only one season removed from being the NL MVP. He’s currently playing out a five-year, $130 million contract with St. Louis, which would presumably prefer to see him continue building his Hall of Fame case in its lineup. Goldy’s Cooperstown plaque would feature a Cardinals hat, so it would make sense for the club to invest in him a bit longer — so long as he remains productive in his walk year.
5. Gleyber Torres, 2B/SS, New York Yankees
Age entering free agency: 28
2024 ZiPS projections: .268/.339/.450, 24 HRs, 79 RBIs, 3.5 fWAR
For years now, Torres has been dangled by the Yankees’ front office as a potential trade chip, only to still be a major asset in the Bombers’ aging lineup. The Yankees have Oswald Peraza ready and waiting to take over at second base, so it appears likely that 2024 will be Torres’ final year in pinstripes. It has always seemed like Torres could reach his full potential outside of the Bronx, where he has received criticism at times for not playing to his potential and lacking focus on defense. Fortunately for Torres, he’s set to enter free agency in his prime and projection systems have him matching or improving his 2023 production in most offensive categories. It’s fair to forecast Torres landing a lucrative multiyear deal as he is among the youngest top hitters in the upcoming free-agent class.
6. Willy Adames, SS, Milwaukee Brewers
Age entering free agency: 29
2024 ZiPS projections: .249/.327/.461, 27 HRs, 87 RBIs, 3.9 fWAR
The Brewers would be smart to trade Adames before he hits free agency since they already shipped Corbin Burnes to the Orioles this winter, suggesting a reset year of sorts. Instead, Adames might be one of the few bright spots in Milwaukee’s 2024 season as he tries to increase his value in an important walk year. The shortstop is coming off a disappointing campaign after playing exceptionally well for the Rays and Brewers from 2018 to 2022. Adames is still athletic, in his prime, and boasting a slick glove in the hole, so he should receive a lucrative deal in free agency, particularly because the other notable shortstops in his class (excluding Miguel Rojas, who has a club option) are Paul DeJong, Garrett Hampson and Joey Wendle.
7. Christian Walker, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks
Age entering free agency: 34
2024 ZiPS projections: .248/.330/.429, 19 HRs, 71 RBIs, 1.8 fWAR
Unfortunately for Walker, he didn’t become a full-time player until 28 years old and is hitting free agency amid a stacked class of first basemen, both of which will impact his value. He’s already been a bit overlooked playing in Arizona, despite launching at least 29 home runs in three of the past five seasons and winning consecutive Gold Gloves. But another downside for Walker, after years of consistency, is projection systems pegging his decline to begin in 2024, largely due to an expected drop in hard-hit rate. Of course, outperforming this forecast in his walk year could net him a really nice payday. Walker is earning $10.9 million in his final year of team control.
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8. Teoscar Hernández, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Age entering free agency: 32
2024 ZiPS projections: .257/.309/.457, 27 HRs, 96 RBIs, 1.6 fWAR
It was a bit surprising that Hernández signed a one-year deal with the Dodgers this offseason, setting the stage for another compelling walk year for the former All-Star. Hernández will certainly be looking for a multiyear deal when he hits free agency again. He would be an asset to any lineup in need of a bat that crushes southpaws. Also, coming off a down year in Seattle, he’s projected to return to form in 2024 and more closely resemble the two-time Silver Slugger from Toronto. Just don’t expect much in the way of defense.
9. Anthony Santander, OF, Baltimore Orioles
Age entering free agency: 30
2024 ZiPS projections: .256/.321/.467, 26 HRs, 83 RBIs, 2.4 fWAR
Speaking of quality players getting overlooked and constantly being involved in trade rumors, Christian Walker and Gleyber Torres have company in their class. Santander, a former Rule 5 draft pick, should finally feel the love when he hits free agency because he’s an exceptional player. He’s coming off another productive season in which he led the Orioles with 41 doubles and tied Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson with a club-high 28 homers. Moreover, Santander posts, is a clubhouse favorite, and serves as a leader for a young O’s team. That he thus far hasn’t been traded from Baltimore while the organization boasts a surplus of talented outfield prospects is a testament to his production. Santander should have no shortage of suitors for his middle-of-the-order bat and strong arm in right field.
10. Michael Conforto, OF, San Francisco Giants
Age entering free agency: 32
2024 ZiPS projections: .241/.332/.388, 12 HRs, 48 RBIs, 0.8 fWAR
Conforto and Boras are certainly hoping free agency will go much better than last time around. The outfielder has experienced quite the baseball journey since the Mets drafted him as a first-round pick in 2014. After seven uneven seasons in Queens, Conforto entered free agency for the first time at age 29. His market was derailed by a shoulder injury, which ultimately left him unsigned and sidelined for all of 2022. The Giants took a shot on Conforto last winter with a two-year deal, and though he remained relatively healthy in 2023, he posted a 99 OPS+ over 406 at-bats. This year presents a huge opportunity for him to rediscover the powerful left-handed swing that averaged 30 home runs as of a few seasons ago.
Also considered: Yankees OF Alex Verdugo, Mets OF Harrison Bader, Marlins 1B/DH Josh Bell, Mariners OF Mitch Haniger, Blue Jays C Danny Jansen, Rockies C Elías Díaz
Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
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