College basketball roundtable: Michigan State’s tourney chances, transfers, more

It’s almost time, ladies and gentlemen!

That long-awaited, fun-filled day when you wait to hear your team’s name called before breaking out a pen and paper to fill out your NCAA Tournament bracket is on the horizon.

Selection Sunday is officially 17 days away, and as conference races heat up and teams look to pad their résumés ahead of the Big Dance, we called upon our college basketball experts, John Fanta and Michael Cohen, to break it all down and tell us what they will be watching as the regular season comes to a close.

Michigan State plays Purdue on Saturday in our FOX Primetime Hoops matchup. While the Spartans haven’t lived up to preseason expectations, the belief has been that Tom Izzo’s team is still an NCAA Tournament lock. After back-to-back home losses to Iowa and Ohio State, do you still feel that way?

John Fanta: I think the Spartans will hear their name called on Selection Sunday, and that they will make the NCAA Tournament. But if you are not on the top-seven seed lines at this point, you are not a lock, in my mind. The metrics like Michigan State quite a bit for a 17-11 team, as the Spartans sit at 24 in the NET. Why? Because they have no bad losses and a KenPom strength of schedule that ranks 12th in the country. After losing back-to-back games to Iowa and Ohio State, though, I believe Michigan State has to win one of its last three regular-season games to avoid being in grave danger of an at-large bid. I do not see them beating Purdue on Saturday night, although we should never count out Tom Izzo in March, but a split with NCAA Tournament-bound Northwestern and Indiana would be enough. Why is this team trending toward being bubbly? It comes back to the offensive inconsistencies beyond Tyson Walker and Malik Hall. The Spartans haven’t gotten enough production game-to-game from AJ Hoggard, Jaden Akins and their post players. 

Michael Cohen: Michigan State is not a lock for the NCAA Tournament. At 17-11 overall and 9-8 in a relatively mediocre Big Ten — the league only had two teams, Purdue and Illinois, earn spots in this week’s AP Poll — the Spartans still have work to do before head coach Tom Izzo can feel comfortable that his streak of 25 consecutive NCAA Tournament bids will be extended to 26. John is right in that the advanced metrics are certainly tilted in Michigan State’s favor. Despite sitting well outside the AP Top 25, the Spartans are ranked 19th on KenPom, 19th on EvanMiya.com and 24th in the NCAA NET Rankings. Their 3-7 record against Quad 1 opponents is largely offset by a 5-4 mark against Quad 2 opponents and zero losses against Quad 3 or Quad 4 competition. The bigger question, though, is what has Izzo’s team really done to warrant inclusion in this year’s field? Of the seven games MSU has played against ranked opponents, the Spartans have lost five of them, and they’re likely to lose again to No. 2 Purdue this weekend. Non-conference defeats to James Madison, Duke and Arizona suggest Michigan State hasn’t fared much better against non-Big Ten opponents than they have against largely underachieving league foes. Izzo’s last three conference losses to Minnesota, Iowa and Ohio State — none of whom are among the top six in the Big Ten standings — captured just how inconsistent and vulnerable this MSU squad really is. Izzo probably needs to win two of his final three regular-season games to assure himself a spot in the Big Dance. 

There have been so many transfers who have played big roles in their team’s current success this season. Who, in your mind, has been the most impactful transfer in college basketball?

Michael: Connecticut’s Cam Spencer feels like a shoo-in for this category given just how much he’s meant to the Huskies this season, his first since transferring from Rutgers. Not only is the fifth-year senior tied for the team lead in scoring at 15.2 points per game — an increase from the 13.2 points per game he averaged during his lone season with the Scarlet Knights in 2022-23 — he’s also leading UConn in 3-point field goals (75), 3-point field goal percentage (44.6%) and free throw percentage (91.7%). His offensive rating of 138.5 on KenPom, which measures a player’s personal offensive efficiency, ranks second in the country behind Khamari McGriff (138.9) of UNC Wilmington and is more than seven points higher than any other player in the Big East. He tied his season high with 25 points in a win over Villanova on Saturday, draining nine of 13 shots from the field and hitting a quintet of 3-pointers, equaling his mark for most 3s against a conference opponent. If the Huskies make another deep NCAA Tournament run, Spencer’s offensive contributions are likely to be at the forefront for head coach Dan Hurley.

John: It has to be Cam Spencer, right? I think he’s even exceeded what the UConn staff thought he would be coming from Rutgers. Spencer is the type of transfer where it feels like he’s been in Storrs for four or five seasons. Both Spencer and Dan Hurley have the same intensity and competitive fire. Averaging 15.2 points, 4.6 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game, the former zero-star high school recruit who ended up at Loyola Maryland at first is now as important as any player on the reigning national champions. He is the most efficient shotmaker in America, shooting 50% from the floor, 45% from 3 and 92% from the free throw line. Spencer’s clutch shotmaking and ability to make things happen for this team when they need someone to score is top-notch, and he has played incredibly off Tristen Newton, who joins Spencer in the Big East Player of the Year mix, which we discussed last week in the roundtable. 

As we enter the month of March and Selection Sunday is just over two weeks away, what is one storyline you have your eye on?

John: Who will get the final No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament? I think that it’s fairly certain Purdue, UConn and Houston will receive three of the top slots and Mike DeCourcy still has Arizona on the 1-line, but North Carolina and Tennessee have to be lurking. The Wildcats’ remaining regular-season schedule is manageable with three games against teams out of the NCAA Tournament conversation (Oregon, at UCLA, at USC). Yes, two are on the road, but Arizona will be favored in all of those contests with one of those games away from Tucson being against the under .500 Trojans. 

What’s interesting is North Carolina actually has more combined Quad 1 and 2 wins than Arizona with 12 to the Wildcats’ 11, while the Tar Heels are 7-2 on the road. Arizona is 5-3. UNC’s remaining schedule: NC State, Notre Dame, at Duke. If the Tar Heels can complete a season sweep of the Blue Devils, to me, that would catapult them on to the 1-line, provided they win the other two games. 

Unlike Arizona and North Carolina, Tennessee does not own a Quadrant 3 loss. The issue: they own two fewer Quad 1 wins. But, there are big chances to change that and make a better case to get the 1-seed. The Vols’ remaining regular-season schedule: at No. 14 Alabama on Saturday, at No. 18 South Carolina on March 6, then home to No. 16 Kentucky on March 9. 

Obviously, bubble watch is a daily thing. If there’s one bubble team I find interesting, it’s Villanova. The Wildcats have wins over North Carolina, Creighton and Texas Tech but went 0-3 in the Philadelphia Big Five. They must go 2-1 down the stretch: at Providence, at Seton Hall, home to Creighton. Their road game against the Friars at Noon ET Saturday on FOX is massive. Villanova had not missed the NCAA Tournament since 2012 before last year. Two straight misses would not be good for second-year head coach Kyle Neptune.  

One other element: Kevin McCullar Jr.’s status. The fifth-year senior having a knee injury greatly hampers this Kansas team, and I could see a first-weekend exit if they didn’t have him. It will impact how the selection committee views the Jayhawks.

Michael: A storyline worth watching is how much, or how little, respect the NCAA Tournament’s selection committee affords the Big East come Selection Sunday. While there’s little doubting the league’s top-end talent with No. 3 UConn, No. 5 Marquette and No. 12 Creighton all likely to be seeded among the top-16 teams overall, there are legitimate questions to be asked about its bubble teams:

Seton Hall (18-10 overall, 11-6 Big East) — After knocking off Connecticut in December, the Pirates hold one of the nation’s best wins that should be the first line on their postseason  résumé. But outside of that game, and a subsequent home win over Marquette, there isn’t much else in Seton Hall’s favor. Non-conference wins over the likes of Monmouth, Northeastern, Albany and Wagner won’t do much to help head coach Shaheen Holloway’s case, and the Pirates are outside the top 50 on both KenPom and the NCAA NET Rankings. 

Providence (18-10 overall, 9-8 Big East) — It’s impressive what the Friars have done following a season-ending injury to star forward Bryce Hopkins, a first-team All-Big East performer in 2022-23. Without him, first-year head coach Kim English has leaned heavily on star guard Devin Carter (19.3 points, 8.3 rebounds per game) to hover around .500 and the middle of the league standings. Providence’s best non-conference win — a 72-59 victory over Wisconsin — is looking worse and worse with each passing week as the Badgers continue to struggle, but the Friars have won seven of their last 11. 

Villanova (16-12 overall, 9-8 Big East) — One of the most disappointing teams in the country relative to preseason expectations, the Wildcats continue to hang around the NCAA Tournament picture despite dropping eight of their last 14 games. Early non-conference wins over North Carolina and Memphis have offered some ballast to a poor Big East showing that includes two losses to St. John’s and additional defeats against Butler and Xavier. But Villanova is still respected when it comes to advanced metrics and ranks 31st on KenPom and 34th in the NCAA NET Rankings with a 6-1 mark against Quad 2 opponents. 

Butler (16-13 overall, 7-11 Big East) — Second-year coach Thad Matta has done a nice job improving the Bulldogs from a sub-.500 team a season ago to a team on the fringes of the bubble as the Big East Tournament nears. True, Matta’s team has dropped six of its last seven entering the weekend, but six of their first 10 conference losses came by 10 points or fewer. Hard-fought losses to UConn (88-81 and 71-62), Marquette (78-72) and Providence (85-75, OT) show the level the Bulldogs can reach on a nightly basis, especially with wins over Creighton and Marquette. But they’ve got work to do ahead of Selection Sunday. 

The reason these four teams are so interesting is because of how different the Big East picture might look depending on their inclusions, or exclusions, from the NCAA Tournament. The league could have anywhere from 27% to 64% of its members participating in the Big Dance, and that disparity leaves plenty of room for interpretation when players, coaches, fans and media members assess the quality of one conference against another. 

Who is one team outside the top 10 that is flying under the radar and could make a big splash in March?

Michael: Creighton is a team that always seemed to have the pieces necessary for a lengthy postseason run, and the Bluejays’ demolition of Connecticut last week offered an indication of just how high their ceiling might be — a subsequent road loss to St. John’s notwithstanding. From a roster construction standpoint, head coach Greg McDermott has compiled a group that seems to tick most of the boxes relevant to NCAA Tournament success. An experienced, reliable point guard? Check: Senior Steven Ashworth averages nearly 11 points and better than four assists per game while shooting 35.8% from 3-point range and 89.3% from the free-throw line. Score-first wings with enough size to defend multiple positions? Check: Baylor Scheierman (6-7, 205 pounds) is averaging 18.2 points and 8.5 rebounds per game as one of the best small forwards in the country; Trey Alexander (6-4, 190 pounds) is averaging 17.6 points and 5.9 rebounds per game as the team’s best shot creator in one-on-one situations. A potent big man who can influence the game on both ends of the floor? Check: Ryan Kalkbrenner (7-1, 270 pounds) averages nearly 17 points per game and is the two-time defending Big East Defensive Player of the Year. On paper, McDermott’s team has what it takes to reach the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament, if not the Final Four. 

John: This is an easy one for me. Kentucky. The Wildcats have the most upside in the country and have won four of their last five games after a 91-89 victory over Mississippi State on Tuesday night. Reed Sheppard was incredible, hitting a runner from the free throw line to beat the Bulldogs, capping a 32-point, seven-assist, five-rebound, two-block, two-steal masterclass. This was on the heels of a dominant 117-95 win over No. 14 Alabama on Saturday in which Justin Edwards tallied a career-high 28 points on 10-of-10 from the floor. 

With Antonio Reeves having an All-American season, Rob Dillingham delivering sparks like he did last week at LSU, and an offense that is as dangerous as any in the country, if UK can defend even at an average rate, this team can make the Final Four. The Wildcats could also lose in the first weekend. John Calipari, it’s your move. There are no excuses this time around. It’s time for Kentucky to make the second weekend of the Big Dance for the first time since 2019. 

Which upcoming conference tournament are you most excited about watching and seeing how it plays out?

John: The Big East Tournament. UConn has not won it since Kemba Walker powered the Huskies to five wins in as many days in 2011. Marquette is the reigning champion and has bad blood with the Huskies. Creighton has been to the conference championship game four times in 10 years but has never won it. That being said, Steven Ashworth, Baylor Scheierman, Trey Alexander and Ryan Kalkbrenner showed they’re capable of doing something very special in March with the win over previously-No. 1 ranked Connecticut last week. 

So, you have three top-15 teams in that tournament. But here’s what makes it chaotic: the bubble teams and coaches. You have Seton Hall, Providence, Villanova, Butler and maybe even St. John’s fighting for their NCAA Tournament at-large life. 

You have characters on the sidelines who aren’t afraid to speak their mind, like Xavier’s Sean Miller.

Or what about Rick Pitino?

Or Dan Hurley, who made headlines in Omaha when getting into it with Creighton fans last week:

You also have somebody who will be angry they didn’t get Big East Player of the Year, with Providence’s Devin Carter, UConn’s Tristen Newton and Cam Spencer and Marquette’s Tyler Kolek firmly in the mix. 

And you have a venue in Madison Square Garden that is synonymous with the Big East, hosting its tournament for a 42nd consecutive year, March 13-16 on FOX and FS1. It’s the perfect blend of frontrunners and bubbly intrigue. 

Michael: With John shrewdly outlining the case for the Big East, which is probably the right answer here, a compelling secondary option is the Big 12, where chaos has reigned since the arrivals of Houston, BYU, Cincinnati and UCF through conference realignment last summer. Led by head coach Kelvin Sampson, who is on pace for a third consecutive 30-win season, Houston has entrenched itself as one of the finest programs in the country, a ruggedly disciplined outfit that, year over year, grinds opponents into the ground. Any concerns about how the Cougars would fare in their transition from the underwhelming American Athletic Conference to the big leagues of the Big 12 have been assuaged by Houston’s 12-3 mark in league play that has Sampson’s team, which is currently ranked No. 1 in the AP Poll, on the cusp of a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, too. 

But it’s behind Houston that the true magic of the league resides. The rest of the Big 12 is a logjam of high-level talent that should make the conference tournament an incredible watch for basketball fans across the country. Eight of the league’s 14 teams are within two games of each other in the loss column as the regular season enters its final two weeks, and even last-place West Virginia, which is just 4-11 in the Big 12, has a win over then-No. 3 Kansas earlier this year. In a league where anyone can beat anyone else on a given night, the conference tournament should be an absolute slugfest. The Big 12 has four teams ranked among the top 15 nationally for a reason.

John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Field of 68 Media Network. Follow him on Twitter @John_Fanta.

Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him on Twitter at @Michael_Cohen13.

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