We’ve seen this movie before and may know exactly how it ends. Scottie Scheffler will take a share of the lead into the final round of the 2024 Houston Open with eyes on his third straight PGA Tour victory. With one, he joins the likes of Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy and Dustin Johnson as the most recent players to accomplish such a feat — this, in Scheffler’s final start before the Masters in two weeks.
Scheffler stands at 9 under, alongside David Skinns, Stephan Jaeger, Thomas Detry and Alejandro Tosti, thanks to an eight-birdie 66 on Saturday. In total, 21 players find themselves within five strokes of the lead, setting up what is sure to be dramatic final round in Houston.
That is unless the Sunday Scheffler from the past two tournaments appears once again.
Gaining more than seven strokes on the field in the final round en route to victory at both the Arnold Palmer Invitational and Players Championship, Scheffler has thrived when the tension has been at its highest. He will need to be at his best again; back-nine mistakes have allowed a litany of players a chance to reign supreme on Sunday.
Seemingly without a crack in his armor with a new mallet putter in tow, Scheffler hasn’t been his sharpest with his long game the last two days. A couple of water balls and a double bogey on Friday were shrugged off as outliers, but there the mistakes were again on Saturday.
Greenside in one on the drivable par-4 13th, Scheffler chipped across the green and made bogey on a hole where most players added a circle to their scorecard. Another short hole a few moments later bit Scheffler, however, when his tee shot on the par-3 15th landed 6 feet short of the pin, spun off the front and into the water leading to another double bogey.
The world No. 1 rebooted, as he so often does, and tacked on birdies on 16 and 17 to erase the mistake; however, it is the difference between sleeping on the lead alone and sleeping on it with four others. No matter how many are in with a chance, Scheffler remains the favorite. Should his usual game come through in the final round, the Texan will find himself in a place where he has become all too familiar: the winner’s circle.
The leaders
T1. Scottie Scheffler, Stephan Jaeger, David Skinns, Alejandro Tosti, Thomas Detry (-9)
This isn’t exactly a Murderers’ Row of contenders for Scheffler, but this thing won’t be handed to him. The four others acquitted themselves quite nicely in the third round, with Jaeger in particular standing out. The German has added some new pop in the big stick thanks to dedicated distance training, and it is paying dividends.
Like Scheffler, he made some silly mistakes with missed par putts from 6 feet and 4 feet to go along with a water ball on 17 (where he managed to save par), but he is still right there. With final-round experience under his belt from the Farmers Insurance Open and playing alongside Scheffler on Saturday, Jaeger could be frisky.
“Yeah, that guy, he’s pretty good,” Jaeger said of Scheffler. “No, it was fun, right? That’s kind of what we practice for, and we try to get in the lead and we’re trying to have a chance to win. So, I’m excited.”
Other contenders
T6. Taylor Moore, Akshay Bhatia, Nick Dunlap (-8)
T9. Chad Ramey, Aaron Rai, Max Greyserman, Tony Finau (-7)
The round of the day came courtesy of Dunlap’s bogey-free 63, which has positioned the 20-year-old to contend for his second PGA Tour title. Ever since breaking through as an amateur at The American Express, Dunlap has struggled ever so slightly as a professional. Though that dip was not totally unexpected, he nevertheless finished dead last at Pebble Beach and missed the cuts at Riviera and TPC Sawgrass. He also failed to register top 40s at Bay Hill and PGA National. Dunlap continues to learn each and every week, and Sunday will serve as yet another lesson with a chance to win again.
“It’s still new, and I still get lost and don’t know where to register and don’t know where dining is,” said Dunlap. “As far as I’m getting a little bit more comfortable out there. It obviously helps, today played alongside Gary [Woodland] and almost every week playing with either Scottie [Scheffler] or Sam [Burns], practice rounds, just being in their company has helped me.”
2024 Houston Open updated odds and picks
Odds via Sportsline consensus
- Scottie Scheffler: 7/5
- Stephan Jaeger: 13/2
- Thomas Detry: 9-1
- Alejandro Tosti: 12-1
- Taylor Moore: 12-1
- Akshay Bhatia: 12-1
- Tony Finau: 14-1
- Nick Dunlap: 16-1
It is really hard to pick anyone other than the best player in the world over the last two years. Scheffler has a wave of momentum at his back, and yet in all honesty he seems to be playing with his C-game. If the A-game comes through for him on Sunday, Scheffler should run away from the field. (He may still have enough in the tank even if he doesn’t.) If 7/5 is too light for your taste, then consider Moore at 12-1. His short game has been great through 54 holes and should keep him in it. If his ball-striking shows up, then he will have a chance.
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