The 1st round of NFL Draft could be historically heavy on offense, according to odds

There have never been more than 19 offensive players taken in the first round of the NFL Draft.

It usually evens out between offense and defense. Team needs factor in, as does the talent on both sides of the ball. But this year, the draft is expected to be heavy on offense to a historic degree.

BetMGM has set a prop on how many offensive players will go in the first round. And the line is indicating not just a new record, but by a wide margin.

There are longer odds to the under, but even 21 offensive players beats the old record by a couple picks. For those who enjoy offensive football, the first round of this year’s NFL Draft should be a fun one.

Best prospects this year are on offense

The shape of the NFL Draft, as always, starts with the quarterbacks.

Caleb Williams is a virtual lock to go No. 1. The odds of it at BetMGM are -10000. There is more mystery with the second and third picks, but the favorites are both quarterbacks: Jayden Daniels at No. 2 and Drake Maye at No. 3. J.J. McCarthy is going to be off the board quickly. Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. could go in the first round too.

That would be six quarterbacks in the first round. And then we get to the deep receiver and offensive line classes.

There are many good offensive linemen in the draft, and plenty of teams have offensive line needs. The latest mock draft by Charles McDonald and Nate Tice of Yahoo Sports had 12 offensive linemen in the first round.

Then come the receivers. Marvin Harrison, Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze and Brian Thomas Jr. are practically first-round locks. Others like Adonai Mitchell and Keon Coleman could be first rounders as well.

If we get five quarterbacks, five receivers, 12 offensive linemen and one tight end (Brock Bowers, who will go in the first round), that’s 23 offensive players out of the 32 spots. Even if we subtract an offensive linemen or two, that’s easily enough to set the record.

Defensive players will wait

Part of the first round being skewed so heavily toward offense is there aren’t many can’t-miss defensive prospects.

Alabama edge rusher Dallas Turner (-125) is favored to be the first defensive player taken. He’s not even guaranteed to go in the top 10. There are some good defensive players in the draft but nobody near a Myles Garrett or Aidan Hutchinson.

Teams that need a cornerback or pass rushing help will likely get it in the second round and beyond. The first round will be focused on the offensive side of the ball. That’s where the best talent is this season. Enough that an NFL Draft record is very likely to be broken.