NBA picks, best bets for playoffs: Defense rules as under trend continues, Robinson fills Butler void for Heat

Now that the 2024 NBA postseason has begun, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will be providing daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals.

So far this postseason, 10 of the first 14 games have gone under their pre-game point total. The Celtics and Heat did indeed go above this line in Game 1, but remember, Boston made 22 3-pointers. That tied for a franchise record. Assume a bit of downward regression, a game’s worth of adjustments and Miami’s enormous lack of shot creation at the moment due to injuries, and I’m taking the under again here. The Pick: Under 203

There is one player I do expect to have a decent offensive game in this matchup, and that’s Duncan Robinson. His handoff game with Bam Adebayo is probably Miami’s cleanest form of offense without Jimmy Butler. He played just 15 minutes in Game 1, but he’s been dealing with back issues. With offense at such a premium for the Heat right now, I’m expecting more Game 2 minutes to try to space the floor a bit. The Pick: Robinson Over 6.5 Points

Here we have a relatively high total compared to what actually played out in Game 1, but I’m leaning on the defenses because that’s largely what the coaches did. Oklahoma City played 11 players, but its most-used reserve was defensive ace Cason Wallace, who played a huge role in the fourth quarter. Jonas Valanciunas was very good in this game, especially on the boards, but Larry Nance Jr., their defensive specialist, closed the game at center. Coaches tend to start series leaning on defense with their lineup choices in the playoffs, only leaning on offensive matchups when they prove necessary. The standout players of Game 1 were Herb Jones and Lu Dort. I’m just expecting defense to be the defining trait of this series. The Pick: Under 210.5

I’m less interested in the two points that Josh Giddey scored in Game 1 than I am in the 20 minutes that he played. Secondary ball-handling and transition playmaking are nice skills in the regular season. They lose a fair bit of value in a playoff setting, where a team’s best ball-handlers simply have the ball more than they do in lower-stakes games. Giddey is a poor shooter. He’s an unspectacular defender. Mark Daigneault can improve either area of the floor fairly easily by going for offense with Isaiah Joe or defense with Wallace. Giddey isn’t a playoff player. I’m fading his scoring. The Pick: Giddey Under 9.5 Points