NBA picks, best bets for Friday’s playoff games: Why Wolves are in the driver’s seat, plus Pacers-Bucks action

Now that the 2024 NBA postseason has begun, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will be providing daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals.

Khris Middleton’s injury makes this a complicated game to bet on. But now that the series has shifted to Indianapolis and we have two games of data, it seems as though the faster pace Indiana wants to play with has set in. Middleton’s potential absence won’t hurt in that regard given his slower, isolation-based game, and if the Bucks lean more heavily on their shooters like Malik Beasley and A.J. Green, then all the better. Whether or not these teams shoot as well as they did in Game 2, the track meet style of this series is what’s informing this bet. The Pacers want to run. The Bucks have no way of preventing them from doing so. The Pick: Over 221.5

P.J. Washington scored 18 points in Game 2, and that wasn’t an accident. With Tim Hardaway Jr. injured, Dallas does not have many offensive role players to turn to. Washington has to play significant minutes because he is one of their few role players who is somewhat reliable on both ends of the floor. The Clippers have thrown a ton of doubles at Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving coming off of screens in this series, and that creates easy looks for teammates. Washington is the player best equipped to take advantage of them. The Pick: Washington Over 11.5 Points

Minnesota has dominated the first two games, and it hasn’t done so through unsustainable means. The Timberwolves have won the first two games by 37 combined points despite shooting a lower percentage on 3-pointers (32.8% for them vs. 34% for Phoenix). The problems for Phoenix are the sort of things that don’t shift from one building to another. The Timberwolves are +22 in rebounds. Their shot selection is significantly better. With Grayson Allen out, the Suns aren’t even at full strength. Phoenix might win because their superstars are talented enough to swing games if they get hot, but nothing that has happened in this series suggests that the Timberwolves should be four-point underdogs no matter where the games are played. The Pick: Timberwolves +4