With a name like Fierceness, you’d expect the 2024 Kentucky Derby favorite to be wild and hostile. However, the 3-year-old colt, who has the shortest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds at 5-2, is anything but that according to owner Mike Repole. The businessman even compared Fierceness to an NBA Hall of Famer known for his stoic and calm demeanor, saying of the horse, “He’s like Tim Duncan: Chill, relaxed, collected.” Repole is 0-for-7 all-time with previous Kentucky Derby starters, so he’s hoping that relaxed disposition translates into a victory come Saturday at Churchill Downs. Fierceness’ biggest competition in the latest Kentucky Derby odds 2024, is Sierra Leone at 3-1, followed by Catching Freedom at 8-1.
The last three Kentucky Derby winners all had odds of 12-1 or greater, so which 2024 Kentucky Derby horses should you consider with your 2024 Kentucky Derby bets? The 2024 Kentucky Derby post time is 6:57 p.m. ET. Before making any 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine’s elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.
A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling enters the 2024 Kentucky Derby having nailed the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last six years, including an exacta in 2022 with Mo Donegal and Nest. He also called Flightline’s win at the Breeders’ Cup Classic in November of that year.
Demling is at his best in the biggest horse races in the world like the Kentucky Derby 2024. In fact, he has hit 10 of the last 15 Derby-Oaks doubles at Churchill Downs. That means he held a ticket with the winners of both races all but five times in the last 15 years. He’s also called 10 of the last 19 Preakness winners, including nailing his Preakness winner, exacta and superfecta picks in 2023, keenly understanding when the Kentucky Derby winner was poised for victory or a massive upset. Anyone who has followed him is up huge.
Now, with the 2024 Kentucky Derby odds already on the board, Demling is sharing his picks and 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Demling’s surprising 2024 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Fierceness, even though he’s the top favorite and just won the Florida Derby. Fierceness was sired by City of Light, who won multiple Grade 1 races but finished third in his lone start at 1 1/4 miles, the 2024 Kentucky Derby distance. Fierceness’ dam, Nonna Bella, never won a Graded Stakes race, nor did she win any race of even one mile in length. Thus, there are justifiable concerns about whether Fierceness can survive the 2024 Kentucky Derby distance, especially after finishing third at the 1 1/16 miles Holy Bull Stakes in which owner Mike Repole admitted afterwards that the horse “flattened out.”
Fierceness will also have to defy recent Kentucky Derby history, as favorites haven’t fared well at The Run for the Roses over the last five years. They are 0-for-5 over that stretch, and extending the favorite’s record over the last 40 years, they’ve won just 25% of the time. Fierceness is also slated for the No. 16 post, a position with an average finish of 10.18, which is 18th-worst out of the 20 Kentucky Derby posts. See which other 2024 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Another stunner: Demling is high on Dornoch, even though he’s a 20-1 longshot. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Dornoch’s sire, Good Magic, was 2018 Kentucky Derby runner-up, while his damsire, Big Brown, won the first two legs of the 2008 Triple Crown. He has pedigree in his favor, and he also has history on his side after winning the Remsen Stakes in December. Just six previous horses who have won the Remsen Stakes have gone on to compete in the Kentucky Derby, but all six were victorious to complete the Remsen-Kentucky double.
While Dornoch is coming off a loss in his last race to end a three-start winning streak, he was deployed a bit differently tactically in that defeat. Demling believes trainer Danny Gargan will revert back to what produced winning results for Dornoch on Saturday. “A full brother to last year’s Derby winner Mage, the son of Good Magic had won three in a row leading up to the Blue Grass Stakes, including the Fountain of Youth,” Demling told SportsLine. “Trainer Danny Gargan changed up his race tactics and tried to rate him in the Blue Grass and he was fourth. He’ll use his speed this time in the No. 1 post position. He’s a live long shot.” See which other horses to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is especially high on an epic double-digit longshot who “keeps getting better and better.” Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2024 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2024, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who nailed 10 Derby-Oaks doubles.
2024 Kentucky Derby odds, futures
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